belaja wrote:
... was hoping for a kerfuckle here...
Well, at least I have a lame excuse for not posting; I have been recovering from my labors in the Code. At odd moments when not battling the Evil Empire I went back to some of our discussions circa fall of 2008 and started some comments on how things turned out. Then I reconsidered. Anyway, here is some of the take-aways from all those unfinished obsessive-compulsive rants. If anybody wants, we can start a new thread on any of the topics. Or not (I detect some fatigue on these issues).
The Bailout, Stimulus, and financial regulation legislation have not fundamentally solved anything. We are perhaps more vulnerable than in 2007—8.
Europe initially dealt better with the banking crisis than we did. Then they figured out a new way to screw up. I predict that “Merkel” will become a verb meaning “to totally tank an entire continent’s economy”.
Since virtually all fiscal policy including tax cuts expire simultaneously at the end of this year, we will either have a "grand bargain" or we won't. Do you want your depression in installments or all at once?
In late 2008 I was shocked to see that some very good models predicted an economic slowdown with no recovery within a five year horizon. They were correct. Now they predict no robust recovery. “Which will end first, the economic downturn or the Afghan War?”
The monetarists who predicted hyperinflation in 2010 missed the boat, but hey, they are used to being wrong and it never stopped them before. Ibid for the austerians who are dismantling the European currency system. Watch carefully folks; the same people who did such a great job in Europe want us to try the same thing.
I’m sure if I think hard enough about global warming I can come up with some more cheery comments. Let the kerfuckle begin!
Jamie
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